The revision-math post: why cheap surgery is expensive

Seeing too many "found a $2.8k rhino in [tourism hub], thoughts?" posts lately. Let's do the arithmetic the brochure skips.

Expected cost = quote + P(revision) × revision cost.

Budget operator: $2,800, but volume-mill revision rates run high — assume 15%, and revisions cost MORE than primaries (scar tissue, harder dissection), say $9k plus flights. → E[cost] = 2800 + 0.15 × 10500 ≈ $4,375, with a fat tail where you're at $13k+ and your nose is worse than baseline.

Reputable specialist: $9,000 at ~5% revision (often discounted for own patients, say $4k). → E[cost] = 9000 + 0.05 × 4000 = $9,200, thin tail.

You're not paying $6k extra for the same product. You're paying to cut the tail off the distribution — on your FACE. Some things are worth buying insurance on and this is the textbook case.

(Yes, elite surgeons exist in cheap markets — the point isn't geography, it's that PRICE screens nothing. Vet with SBR-tier criteria, then let price break ties.)